Delhi elections 2015: Huge loss in seats, but BJP's vote share almost intact-Times of India
NEW DELHI: The BJP on Tuesday may have been decimated in terms of seats in the Delhi state elections but its vote share has remained almost intact. On the other hand, the Congress has been completely obliterated seat-wise and shrunk considerably by vote share.
In 2013 Delhi elections, the BJP had won 31 out of 68 contested seats. It's vote share was 33.07% with 26,04100 votes. The 2015 elections in Delhi has left the BJP vote share almost as it is. According to the latest Election Commission data, the BJP's vote share has reduced by about just one percent, bringing it down to 32.1% (2779810 votes).
The Congress had won 8 out of 70 contested seats and received a vote share of 24.55% (1932933 votes) in 2013 Delhi elections. But in 2015, its political existence and scenario has completely changed. The Congress has got only 9.8% vote share with over 8.4 lakh votes. That is almost a loss of 15% vote share.
BSP which had 5.35% vote share in the last elections is now at 1.3%, demonstrating that like all other small parties in Delhi, its vote share has gone to the AAP.
The AAP is thus the beneficiary of the vote share that traditionally belonged to the Congress and got divided among other smaller parties and independents. In the 2013 elections, the AAP won 28 seats out of 70 and got 29.49% vote share with 2322330 votes. In 2015 elections, the AAP swept the elections with 67 seats and secured 54.3% vote share with 47,26705 votes till the last reports came. That is about 25% addition to their vote share.
Delhi elections results 2015: Factors which led to an AAP wave in Delhi
NEW DELHI: The Aam Aadmi Party is all set to form the government in Delhi with the party surging ahead as counting of votes progressed.
Here are 10 factors which lead to an AAP wave in the capital:
Early bird gets the worm: AAP and its chief Kejriwal had been preparing for this election for sometime now. In fact, since its dismal performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, AAP had been gearing for the Delhi assembly elections. From declaration of candidates to its manifesto, AAP was much ahead of the BJP and Congress. Through its Delhi dialogues, AAP leaders were also able to reconnect with voters.
Kejriwal's apology and reinvention: Everybody deserves a second chance - that's what the Delhi voter felt. At every available opportunity, Kejriwal apologized for quitting after 49 days. Kejriwal's apology made him look sincere and enhanced his 'aam aadmi' appeal. In addition, in a deliberate strategy, Kejriwal toned down his "anarchist" image. There was a deliberate attempt not to name and shame opponents. Despite provocation, Kejriwal refused to say anything negative about Kiran Bedi. All these changes helped Kejriwal in changing his image from a quitter and anarchist to one who was humble and ready to accept a challenge.
Mufflerman vs Rs 10 lakh suit man: Winning elections is a lot about managing perceptions. Wearing a suit with his name on it certainly did nothing to help PM Narendra Modi and the BJP in the Delhi polls. The media was quick to brand it as Rs 10 lakh suit. On the other hand, Arvind Kejriwal with his muffler was the quintessential aam aadmi. The BJP lost a crucial perception battle here.
AAP's appeal among Muslims: Though detailed election data is yet to come, but all reports point to Muslims overwhelmingly supporting the AAP. In the last assembly election election, the Muslim vote was divided between AAP and Congress. But this time, it was clear from the start, that it is going to be a direct fight between the BJP and AAP. Hence, the AAP was able to get sizable Muslim votes.
Congress's loss is AAP's gain: Congress was unable to recover its lost ground in Delhi, was reduced to a non-entity this assembly election. It is projected to get less percentage of votes than the last assembly polls. AAP has been able to get majority of Congress's votes.
BJP took Delhi for granted: The 7-0 scoreline in the Lok Sabha elections made the BJP complacent about the Delhi assembly polls. Delhi had fallen off its radar. It allowed the AAP and Kejriwal to regroup and recover. Then, there was infighting in the state unit.The party was relying too much on Narendra Modi's appeal and Amit Shah's organising abilities. By the time BJP became serious, Kejriwal and AAP had taken a lead and were setting the agenda.
Bedi factor failed to click for BJP: Initially, it appeared that the induction of Kiran Bedi and her projection as the BJP CM candidate was a masterstroke by Amit Shah. But the local BJP workers were reportedly not happy with sudden elevation of Kiran Bedi and she had to face opposition from within the BJP. In almost all opinion polls, Kejriwal was much ahead of Bedi as the preferred CM candidate.
No polarization: The Hindu-Muslim polarization was not a factor in Delhi assembly polls. Moreover, AAP had consciously worked to avoid any polarization of voters on religious grounds. It was also quick to reject the offer of support from Jama Masjid's Shahi Imam Bukhari.
It was not about Modi: To be fair to PM Narendra Modi, this was not an election about him. If at all, this was a state election and it was all about the CM candidate Kejriwal. Even in last assembly polls, many voters had said that they would vote for Kejriwal in assembly polls and for Modi in the Lok Sabha elections. This distinction seems to have worked in AAP's favour again.
Anti-incumbency: Anti-incumbency did not work in Delhi for the BJP. Unlike other states, where the BJP gained from anti-incumbency, the picture was different in Delhi.
Delhi elections 2015 results: 9 key lessons for BJP, CongressNEW DELHI: The results from Delhi are a vindication for the Aam Aadmi Party which will return to Delhi with a thumping majority this time. BJP had been reduced to single digits, while the Congress has failed to open its account in the capital.
Here are some key lessons the BJP and Congress can take away from this comprehensive defeat:
Modi momentum slows down: The law of diminishing return seems to have caught up with PM Narendra Modi. With every state election, the Modi wave is losing its momentum. This defeat in Delhi is the first comprehensive loss for the BJP since it came to power at the Centre. BJP must realize they cannot rely on the Modi factor alone in state elections.
AAP a force to reckon with in Delhi: AAP may have fared miserably in the Lok Sabha polls and may not be a force at the national level, but the party still remains a major player in Delhi. Punjab may be next on AAP's agenda. BJP has to stay away from complacency in subsequent state elections. Congress, on the other hand, needs to do something drastic.
Congress's free fall continues: Congress looks all set not to win a single seat in the Delhi assembly polls. The Congress is heading for oblivion with voters not yet not ready to forgive the grand old party for its terrible misrule during the UPA II regime. There might be fresh rumblings about Rahul Gandhi's leadership in Congress.
Party's state units matter, Kiran Bedi a flop: For the BJP, Delhi assembly elections are more a reflection of a poor state unit than a loss of appeal of Modi among voters. There was too much infighting in the BJP's Delhi unit. The projection of Kiran Bedi as the CM candidate was a kind of vote of no-confidence in the BJP's state unit.
Anti-incumbency: The BJP has been a major gainer of anti-incumbency in the Lok Sabha as well as in subsequent state elections. In Delhi, with Modi as the PM, the BJP was not able to cash in on unsatisfactory performance of other governments.
Muslims are still wary of BJP: That BJP and Muslims don't share cordial electoral relationship is well-known. But recent provocation by Sakshi Maharaj and events like 'gahr wapsi' may have further driven Muslims away from the BJP.
Amit Shah suffers a setback: Delhi elections are the first major setback for BJP's "master strategist" Amit Shah. All the moves of Amit Shah including getting Kiran Bedi as BJP's CM candidate failed to click with Delhi voters.
State and Lok Sabha polls are different: To be fair to PM Narendra Modi, this was not an election about him. It was all about Arvind Kejriwal and AAP in Delhi. With elections being more personality-centric, voters are increasingly showing a tendency to differentiate between local, state and Lok Sabha polls.
Opinion and exit polls are not always wrong: It has become a fashion among political parties to dismiss opinion and exit polls if they are not in their favour. This time most opinion and exit polls predicted an AAP win. But if exit polls did not expects such a comprehensive victory for AAP.
Link Times of India
Five reasons that helped the ‘5 saal Kejriwal’ campaign-Indian express
1. Arvind Kejriwal: Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) chief Arvind Kejriwal has brought back his party, almost like a phoenix. After the disastrous Lok Sabha election, AAP’s Delhi victory in 2013 had started appearing like a fluke. The perception was that AAP is a party which chases the limelight only to be in news. Pushed to the corner, Kejriwal stood firm with an unshakable belief that Delhi is looking for a change. His charisma charmed the voters and he successfully convinced them that he is there for the long haul. A mellowed Kejriwal led a very positive campaign. And the numbers are phenomenal. BJP’s governance model didn’t cut ice with Delhi voters.
2. Kiran Bedi: The former IPS officer’s projection as chief ministerial candidate was a non-starter. A faction-ridden Delhi unit made its unease clear. Also, the way Bedi led the campaign proved to be beneficial for AAP. She promoted herself and her work as a police officer during her campaigns. No doubt, she is an excellent orator. But politics is a different ball game. Personality can’t supercede issues. She modelled herself as Modi and sought votes for development. But the voter had something else in mind. Her gaffes also worked in Kejriwal’s favour.
3. Strong cadre base: Ever since its debacle in the Lok Sabha elections, the AAP was hoping the Centre would call elections early in Delhi. The Centre’s delay, it seems, turned out to be a blessing in disguise for Kejriwal. AAP workers fanned out to the field laying the ground work for Kejriwal’s victory. A dedicated army of volunteers and a massive social media push changed the political landscape in Delhi. AAP demolished the perception that BJP can’t be defeated. And Kejriwal should be thankful to his workers who echoed the AAP chief’s slogan of clean politics.
4. BJP’s arrogance: After May 16 when Narendra Modi rode to power, a rejuvenated BJP scripted victories in three state polls. But soon complacency dawned in rank and file of the BJP. The arrogance was palpable.
5. Personal attacks against Kejriwal BJP leaders called Kejriwal a ‘chor’ and a ‘bhagora’, and even a Naxalite. Prime Minister Modi trashed him as no match for his persona. But the ground beneath was changing. And BJP failed to read the swell in AAP’s favour.
My Observation submitted just few hour ago are as follows
I sincerely congratulate Mr. Arvind Kejriwal and his colleagues in Aam Admi Party for hard work they have done to win the election in Delhi. Their victory in Delhi is unprecedented and historical in nature. His concerted effort along with his team is really praise worthy . I at the same time submit some of points which may be considered as some lessons for BJP from result of Delhi election
BJP should focus on what party plan to do, campaign on positive issues and not on negatives of other parties. Voters do not like bad words used for good man and good words for bad man. Abusing and making mockery of Mr. Arvind Kejriwal, leader of Aaam Admi Party proved costly for BJP as it proved costly for Congress Party and other non-BJP parties during Loksabha election when Congress party and others focused only against Modi instead of focusing on positive agenda for voters.
Please keep in mind that Mr. Kejriwal is having good image just like Mr. Narendra Modi possess good name in public domain and hence anyone who criticizes such man becomes victim of public anger. BJP should stop dirty campaign launched by Hindu wings like VHP or Bajrang Dal who are talking of Hindutwa and it is they who have annoyed Muslims.
It is important to point out here that by dint of positive campaign done by Mr. Narendra Modi and due to focus on growth, BJP won last election and Muslims were slowly shifting towards BJP. Hindutwa wings of BJP and its allies must stop advising number of child to be born to a parent. A few members of Parliament associated with BJP by their Hate speeches have made not only Muslims hostile to BJP but also other communities including Hindus.
Persons like Togaria, Ashok Singhal are curse on the harmonic nature of the society and on unity and integrity of the nation and hence should be dropped in ocean because it is they who caused defeat of NDA in the year 2004, who caused loss to Mr. L. K. Advani and who have contributed in downfall of BJP in Delhi .
BJP has faced curse of Bank staff who have been treated step motherly in wage issues even though they devotedly and sincerely did the job of opening of accounts on the advice of Mr. Modi .
Lastly I would like to suggest that BJP should instruct to all its leaders in and outside Delhi not to make any comment on the functioning of Aam Admi Party at least for a year. Kiran Bedi did her best to win the hearts of voters and hence she should not be blamed for defeat. Reason for defeat of BJP or for victory of AAP is that AAP cadre worked in field whereas BJP cadre depended on speeches of Mr. Modi only. During President’s rule in Delhi BJP almost ignored Delhi and voters got annoyed. Voters of Delhi supported AAP wholeheartedly because they lost trust on BJP and found Mr. AAP more trustworthy. Congress Party has been completely rejected by voters of Congress Party because their leaders instead of focusing on party's agenda concentrated only on abusing Mr. Modi And Mr. Kejriwal. This party did not take any lessons from humiliating defeat in last Parliamentary election and last assembly election. Downfall of Congress Party cannot be stopped by leaders whom the party believe and trust.
It is also true that defeat of BJP is more due to conversion of triangular fight to bipolar fight. Still it is sad that BJP could not win the votes of Congress Party which a new party like AAP could. BJP should however introspect to find out key reasons for such a humiliating defeat in Delhi despite all good works done under the leadership of Mr. Narendra Modi and BJP at centre. Entire credit goes to Mr. Modi for making India stronger than ever before. However Mr. Modi has to do a lot to win back the heart of voters which got disappointed during their short rule of eight to nine months.
At the same time I hope Mr. Arvind Kejriwal will not repeat the story of his 49 days tenure of Chief Minister of Delhi. I hope he will work in tune with Central government , give due respect to Constitutional provisions and take all possible steps to do all possible works to fulfil the commitment made by him during election campaign.
I once again congratulate Mr. Kejriwal and his team for landslide victory in Delhi Assembly election.
It is proved by the result of Delhi Election that secular card played by various parties to win election can no more be used for winning election. Political parties have to focus on growth, on problems of voters and exhibit by actions that they are really and truly honest and beyond suspicion like Mr. Kejriwal and Mr. Modi. Corruption of Congress Party and Arrogance of BJP caused damage to these parties which they have to take care of in future elections.